The key question

Will
Going To
Decided NOW, at the moment of speaking (spontaneous)
Decided BEFORE — it's already a plan
Promise, offer, threat
Intention, plan, schedule
General prediction (opinion / belief)
Prediction with visible evidence (you can SEE it)

Side by side

SituationWill ✓Going To ✓
Someone knocks on the door I'll get it.
(decided right now)
—
You decided last week — I'm going to visit my parents.
(plan made in advance)
You see dark clouds — It's going to rain.
(evidence you can see)
General belief about the future I think robots will replace many jobs.
(your opinion)
—
A promise I won't tell anyone. I promise. —
An offer I'll carry that for you. —
Both can sometimes work: "I think it will rain" and "It's going to rain" can both be correct, but with different shades of meaning. Will = my general feeling; Going to = I can see the evidence right now. In practice, native speakers use both interchangeably in informal conversation.

Predictions: the key difference

TypeFormWhy
"I think she'll win." will Based on my opinion, not visible proof.
"Look — she's going to win! She's way ahead." going to I can SEE her in the lead right now.

Exercises

Exercise 1 — Will or Going To?

Choose the correct form and explain why.

1. "I forgot my wallet." — "Don't worry, I _____."

2. He _____ in Japan next year.

3. Careful! That tree _____ on the car!

4. I think technology _____ medicine completely.

5. "The phone is ringing." — "I _____ it."